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Trading 1974 Bear Market Historic Analog | Best Easy Options Trade for 2022

Jun 27, 2022

 Speaker 1: (00:00)
Hey guys, what's going on in this video, we're gonna explain how you can easily beat the markets in the next 120 to 160 days, utilizing a simple trading and strategy introduced to here at 13 market moves that focuses on trading in historic analogs. Many instances in we past, we have been able to precisely point out the pivotal critical conditions of trading in the markets on BFF bear and bull instances, where you've been able to create astronomical returns in your trading accounts. Now, in this particular case, we're gonna break down in detail, the trading net analog based on the charts of 1974, what we're really gonna focus on in helping you understand how easy it is going to be to trade the markets in the next four months, especially if you understand the 13 market moves sequences. So let's take a closer look at 1974, historic analog right here.

Speaker 1: (00:56)
We're looking at a timeframe between basically April may. Now you you'll notice there's a lot of real close correlations to the cart market conditions such as, uh, the market topped out, uh, work made the lost run up higher in, uh, March before a horrific April, right? These market conditions of a bad April only observed a few instances in the history of the United States market. And so the fact that in 1974, we had a very, uh, substantial move to downside highly resembles the 2022 market conditions. So despite of all the top fundamentals, we started picking up on this pivotal turn, where everybody normally would be highly bullish in April, such as pointed out in prior videos, JP Morgan, a lot of wallers, they were bullish and market saying, well, statistically speaking, April's highly bullish month. And one of those videos I brought to your attention, the fact that indeed there are instances in the history of United States market where some big downturns in market began in April.

Speaker 1: (02:07)
So such as the case in 1974, now, needless to speak of the inflation conditions. A lot of other things let's fast forward to this part of the chart. Now, historic catalogs, they're not gonna necessarily run day by day, precisely accurately with the current conditions. So there is a wiggle room for a few days to up to about 10, 14 days on day by day candle situation. So based off what we study and following this historic analog, uh, we are currently in this part of the historic analog, which in 1974 shows in July, but we are officially am recording this on June 25th, 2022. So there's a little bit of room here as far as the day to day comparison, but the pattern is there. And if you focus on this pattern, guys, you will be amazed of how easy it is to trade this market. Now I'm not saying it is going to be psychologically easy.

Speaker 1: (03:10)
What I am saying is gonna be pattern wise. If you get this information in the next 10 minutes, you gonna outperform 99% of the traders. And so to help you accomplish that, I'm gonna actually zoom in on this 1974 chart. And I'm gonna allow you to compare the timeframes of bounces in relation to the drops. We're gonna look at a percentage of the days where the market bounces or has a green day in relation to the red days. We're also gonna show you the approximate value of the increase of the market during such bounces in relation to the drops. So let's zoom in and take a closer look. So based of our calculations, uh, next few days, the market is gonna be going sideways to higher until we ultimately hit this 4,065 area. Now, of course, that number could be slightly off. We could go to, you know, 4,030, we could go to 4 4100, but I'm gonna show you why we believe starting to short, right about a 4,000 area based on this historic condition, which I specifically drew this error right here to point out that the market tops out in 1974, or it, it doesn't necessarily top out.

Speaker 1: (04:29)
But what it does is after a preceding series of drops, it finally makes this attempt to move higher and this attempt to move higher. Doesn't last, very long. Also notice that it does not as straight, uh, cumulative action higher, as we see finally, in the late stages of this chart right here in October. So what we're talking about is an orderly attempt grind hire, um, in the markets over the course of the next, uh, five to 10 days. Now it may not even run as many days as it did in 1974, but we just recently had a couple of green days in the market. Uh, and we're somewhere in the middle of this part of the chart. If we were to compare it to 1974 and the second I'm bringing the car in chart. So you can visualize this a little bit better, but just focus on the number of white candles for the whole month of July in 1974.

Speaker 1: (05:33)
So we're talking from this part of the chart all the way down to this part of the chart. Uh, and if you calculate the red, uh, the red candles versus the green candles, the green candles are about 40% of the trading day. So generally speaking is gonna be like 22, 23 trading days in each month. And we take the trading days and how many of them were green days? Okay. There was only about 40% so automatically just using this basic statistics. Okay. You're better off in 60% going bearish within that timeframe, despite of seeing some clearly bullish candles that are developing. Um, now notice that any bullish action is normally subdivided. It is interrupted. So for example, you have bullish candle here, bullish candle here. While on the third day, you're destined to get a red candle. This pattern is quite obvious. Uh, you get bullish candle bullish, bullish candle followed by another red candle and pan is slightly interrupted here, but the idea is the same.

Speaker 1: (06:37)
You get three bullish days and up to that, uh, you get a red candle. So at the most we're looking two, three days interrupted by a sideway move or a red move that ultimately resolve into a much longer move to the downside. So if you count the red Kindles right here, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. So you got seven days uninterrupted. Okay. The keyword is uninterrupted because when you're trying to trade a sequence with 13 market moves, your best trades are gonna be the ones that most of the traders online, uh, here on YouTube, they will never ever catch them because those traders are trying to catch a hundred bucks a day, 500, couple thousand dollars a day. They're not really focusing on the overall pattern. They're not really focusing on the overall sequence of the move. And if you focus on this chart with me, you will see how predictable this pattern really is over the course of the next four months.

Speaker 1: (07:42)
So basically the number of green days, okay. Significantly lower than the number of red days. And the number of green days will be interrupted quite frequently by a sideway move or a red move in between when we compare that to your ability to trade the market. Okay. The, the reason why most of the traders, they don't get to see, you know, exponential returns in their trading account because they can't stay with the trade. They jump into the trade two hours later. Oh my God, I see something green in my account and they jump out. And so for example, a trader may get in into the trade right here and jump out on the next red day, right there. Maybe realizing a small game, but the trader will miss out on red day, number 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. So trader's gonna miss out on five days where his very straight would be incredibly profitable.

Speaker 1: (08:50)
So don't make that mistake. Guys, if you struggle, the number one reason why many traders have contacted us lately is because they're saying, look, Leo, oh my God, I could have made so much money. Okay. If I listen to you, but every time I get into a trade, I jump out. I only realize small gains. Okay. I, you know, I want to get rid of that habit. I want to understand what are the market conditions for me to actually stick with the trade. So these are the conditions guys, when you have a highly repetitive pattern that is uninterrupted, there's seven red days here. In other words, you can put on the trade, sit on it for five to seven days. And the reason I say for five to seven days, because if we analyze the next stretch of, uh, of red candles here, now notice how many white candles do we get?

Speaker 1: (09:42)
1, 2, 3 means three green days in the market followed by 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, eighth, red days back to bad guys interrupted by just one bullish day. 1, 2, 3, 1 bullish day 1, 2, 3, 1 bullish day sideways. Okay. Two bullish days. And we get 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 5 red days. And in this instance, we're getting nine red Kindles, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 9 days in the market, just lower, lower notice. These are not huge moves. Okay? So you just gotta be extremely patient with your trade. But if you take any interval right here from July, all the way through, uh, the beginning of October in 1974, you get in a clear picture here that if you just put on your trade and you stay patient with it for five to nine days, I mean, these are some major, major home runs guys. And so make sure you're not in a situation where you're putting on a good trade and then you're jumping out of it the next day.

Speaker 1: (10:57)
Now, clearly you would need to get in the beginning of the trade and sequence. So maybe now you're looking at the spins, quite simple. Okay. You could get a few green days, but the end, uh, these green days are gonna be highly outnumbered by consecutive move lower and the sequence of red day, red day, red day and so on. So if you understand the basic of this pattern, the next criteria you rolling in to nail these trades over the next few months, guys is understanding when is that first red candle? Okay. It's normally it's gonna be followed by it is gonna be right after, um, a sequence of a few bullish days. All right. But even with that, okay. Clearly, I mean, we're not looking at exact 100% match here of day to day activity. So you would need some help. You would number one, you'd need to understand the 13 mark smooth formula.

Speaker 1: (11:49)
And ideally you wanna trade with a coach, okay. Who basically 20 hours a day studies this stuff. Okay. We've got a number of guys that are absolutely exceptional with keeping track of these 13 market moves guys. And certainly if you really want to have the hands on experience, then working with a coach could really get your experience to the next level. Now, understanding this pattern right overall, we would call this a bounce, okay. And a much bigger drop. If we analyze this bounce is very short lift followed by a much longer drop, even though there's a couple of bullish candles here, but they don't last long. Right? If we take a month of August in 1974, guys, this is huge. I mean, we're talking about only 21% of all trading days of green days. I mean, this gives you an insane probability. I mean, 80% potential win rate.

Speaker 1: (12:46)
If you are on the bear side. And if you understand when to actually time your entry, which is what 13 market moves can help you with. Okay. Short leave bounce again, right here. Just a couple of days, followed by a uninterrupted sequence of red days, smaller size bounce, right? The bounces are at the most. Okay. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. I mean, you just want to use it as rule of thumb market goes higher five days in a row, get ready to short it. Damn it. I mean, it's that simple when you understand this historic analog now understand also the conditions that imagine cardiac conditions, as far as the chart, again, there's a lot of fundamental conditions that clearly match the current economic conditions to that 1974. But what we have is a pattern. All of this pattern is developing under the blue line. Okay. And if we switch to the current market conditions in 2022, make sure that you understand your entry in relation to that blue line.

Speaker 1: (13:56)
We're gonna take a look at it in just a second. Now, overall, what we're saying is right now, the market is going through a sideway, uh, two slightly bullish pattern. That's likely to be finished up in the next four to five days. So in the next four to five days, okay, we can get a mix of candles, meaning there's gonna be some candles that are gonna be red, some candles that are gonna be, uh, green, but all overall, they're gonna be moving in this direction right here, slightly to the offsite. Now, uh, the market finished recently, uh, just right at about 3,900 Friday, yesterday on the 24th. So we still believe there's gonna be a roughly of sideway to slightly high action. We can reach a level of about 4,000, 4,065. And from there by October, we can hear the level of 28 81. Okay. Now this is a simple percentage.

Speaker 1: (14:48)
If we take the, uh, percentage differences in 1974 applies same percentage in the drop, uh, to the current market. So 28 81 at some point in October could be the bottom in the market. And then we get, uh, a slightly, uh, bigger bounces. You can see the pattern really breaks, uh, uh, in October where the number of green candles, clearly white candles in his chart represent the green candles on your trading and screen. Not until October two would break this highly bearish, uh, pattern. And you can see that the number of, uh, positive candles or green day candles, they're gonna be, uh, matching and slightly exceeding the number of red candles. The percentage here changes to 56% of trade-in DRS are gonna be green days. So as far as the next 90 days guys, uh, to 120 days, I mean, we got some really, really strong percentages where the number of green days is gonna be kept to an absolute minimum anywhere from 21%, 36%, but no more than 40% is the number of green days.

Speaker 1: (16:01)
So anytime you get, you know, 5, 6, 7 days higher in the market, it gives you an insane probability of going short because this pattern is likely to keep playing out, not just for another week, not just for another, uh, month. This pattern is likely to be playing out just like in 1974, all the way to October. Hopefully that makes sense. And, uh, at this point we're gonna glance at the current market conditions. So, uh, we are here 39, 11. We still got some room to go sideways. Don't expect every day to be a big, uh, green day. Like we had yesterday on Friday. Uh, those sort of candles, uh, they're not very common on certain occasions that will happen, but we're likely to get a scenario of candles like this in like this. So notice the size of the move is going to begin contracting, and it could take us a few days to try to climb here to the four thousand four thousand sixty five area.

Speaker 1: (17:04)
Now ideal entry would be just under the blue line. Okay. So you can keep checking your stock charts daily to see exactly when we're very close to the blue line, because notice, uh, at, at times you're gonna have some overshoots. That's why I'm putting this area of 4,065, potentially even 4,100 to be an ideal entry point, but look in severe down trend markets, beer markets. Okay. Oftentimes you would get close to the blue line, but you're not gonna touch it. So our last perfect tan entry was right here. Guys, we posted the video on a 3 33 move, right before this red Kendall happened, this red Kendall, this right here, you had a solid 3 33 move. Now the market is slowly ground and higher and increase an expansion of the move here. At some point, this, uh, key levels are gonna play, uh, a, a very meaningful impact on the market's ability to move higher.

Speaker 1: (18:02)
So once we get closer to the blue line, this would be a point to start looking for a great entry on the put side. Um, in instances, again, look at this blue line right here and the relation to the candles. It's a small O shoot. It's not like the market is running way up here right before it drops again. Uh, we're talking, uh, just a small always shoot here in the prior action. And if you can see all the other points on this chart, see the market goes close to the blue line, but not quite touching it real close right here. All these were your ideal entry points to short the market, and then it drops and then bounces. So you got, um, slightly an extended overshoot in this instance. Okay. And you got a smaller overshoot in this instance. So we're expecting the blue line just under it to be our first entry, uh, slightly above that, uh, 4,100 level would be our second entry in expectation of a much more meaningful down trend to be resuming.

Speaker 1: (19:09)
Again, I want you to focus on the size of these, uh, red candles. They're not huge. They're not like the size of the red candles that we've nailed on the 3 33 move, but nonetheless, the overall direction after this bounce is gonna be resuming again. And all you have to do is nail your entry and stay with the trade. Do not jump into a trade knowing there's potentially nine, nine day lower moving the market. Overall focus on the bigger move. I can't believe that certain traders, okay, they just get into a trade. They get out 10 minutes later, get into a trade. They get out. And when I ask them, well, why would you do that? Don't you wanna make some real money? Aren't you sick and tired of just trying to get a couple hundred dollars out of the market when it gives you the opportunity to make couple hundred grand, their answer is normally, oh, but Leo, but I'm afraid, man.

Speaker 1: (20:05)
What if it starts reversing and going well, expect it to start reversing and going against you expect your trades to go against you temporarily. This is a stock market. It's moving. You are in the middle of it. Trading weekly options. The values are gonna be changing all the freaking time. What do you expect to get into a fucking trade that nothing moves? No, it's the stock market it's designed to move. Somebody's buying somebody's selling. Of course, at some point in the day, the trade will go against you. So expect it, expect that your count will go in the red. Okay. But overall, understand that even though temporarily the trade can go against you overall over the course of eight, nine days, your trade is gonna be meaningfully in the green. Okay? And if you understand this pattern, just looking at it right now, but you know, psychologically, you are gonna have a hard time actually implementing it.

Speaker 1: (21:05)
Then this is your reason why you should click the link below or go to 13 market moves.com schedule a 20 minute coaching call with the senior trader here. Guys, I work with some of the smartest people in the world that are trying to conquer the, the, the stock market and where the all fail is the psychology. Okay? They understand the chart after they've taken our courses, but what they really need help with is the psychological aspect of trade. And being able to stay with the trade 100% of the time and being able to stay with the trade 100% of the time does not mean that youre gonna win every day. It doesn't mean that your account is gonna be green every day. You're trying to capture a bigger move at one point in the day, certainly the trade is gonna go against you because nothing drops in straight line.

Speaker 1: (21:57)
There's gonna be balances, but this gives you really solid path to understand that, Hey, things could go against you for a little while, but overall with the course of five to nine days, if your entry is good, guys, you, this is the simplest market to trade. We have not a market, not had a market that simple in years. So use this. And if you need help, okay? Not just understanding this, but actually somebody to hold your hand so you can stick to the strategy so you can stick to the plan. So you can actually see your camp, okay. Have a breakthrough. Then again, get some help, get a coach, get your account, moving in the right direction. So with all this stuff right here, guys, very easy entry, okay. But you've gotta steer step in it. And you know, overall all, you know, the strategy, you know where to do it.

Speaker 1: (22:56)
You want precisely, okay. Sign up to trade with a coach and your coach will tell you exactly when he's entering the trade. Now here's some other things, uh, to, to show you that will just blow your mind away. Guys. This is the market that have such a strong correlation with 1974. It is absolutely stupid not to pay, uh, an incredible amount of your attention to this chart right here. So this is dollar dollar in 1974. And as you can see, dollar is about 1 0 5, 1 0 6 level right here. And it tops out by August, September one more time. Okay. At a level about 1 0 4, 1 0 5 and then it goes sideways. Okay. So this is absolutely insane, right? Understanding this information, that dollar actually double tops right around the level of 1 0 5 with the little always shoot guys. This is exactly the action in dollar that we have just seen.

Speaker 1: (24:05)
Now, if you watched my videos in the last few months, I've been pointing, Hey, the dollar could double top at around 1 0 4, 1 0 5 level. We went slightly above that. As you can see, we, um, we almost touched 1 0 6, but how can this even be? I mean, these are the same levels on us dollar from 1974. I mean, we're within millimeters. This is as good of a historic analog as you can possibly dream about as a trader. So the dollar top out double top at the same level as a 1974. So you may be wondering, well, what is then the best trade? I mean, clearly you can go in and short the market. But if we were to really look at the price action of gold in 1974, that was your best trade because the percentage of gains in gold actually outperformed the percentage of drop in the market.

Speaker 1: (25:05)
Now, clearly it is a lot easier to be buying puts. When you know, something's gonna be going lower for five to nine days. If you nailed your entry, however, this gold trade could actually outperform. And I will say this, I've been trying to chase this gold trade in the last couple of weeks. Just like I have been just a little bit earlier on my mRNA trade. In the last couple of years, I basically we're piling up into a lot of calls in mRNA at around 200 level. It got to two 30, a couple of times and retrains back to 2 10, 200, right before it rocketed all the way to $495 with an incredibly short amount of time. So when I'm looking at this gold chart, the most recent example, I can give you how some things could be look embarrassed, right? Because if you're looking at the price, uh, action right here.

Speaker 1: (26:02)
Well, it doesn't look so bullish Leo, it sells off what are you talking? What kind of bull can you be here? Well, I'm gonna show you the current chart because the conditions are insanely similar. And that's exactly when gold takes off. And from 130 to 195 guys, that's 50%, but the timeframe, the timeframe guys, it does that within five months, 150 days, gold moves up to, you know, 50% higher guys in terms of options. I mean, this is huge because that means given current market conditions, gold can move from 1800 bucks to 2,700. We're talking about a humongous trade here, guys. Okay. And the chart is very similar. I want you to look at this blue line and orange line. Do you see how blue line starts going lower? The orange line is higher. Basically. Normally this would be considered like very bearish because ultimately what normally would happen.

Speaker 1: (27:01)
You got the blue line doing this and the orange line is doing this. So you got Def cross. Normally that type of development would lead to strong, drop in whatever is yet you're looking to trade. But if we look at this historic condition, if we look at the double top on the dollar, if we look at what the market is doing, combine it with the current conditions, Gold's got a real case. And right now, gold, for whatever reason, especially in the last few days, it just, it's not even catching a bit. It's just doing stuff that it's not supposed to do, which could be the last final few days right here. If we go back to 1974 analog, we could say, okay, well, gold is somewhere right here. If we're to apply it to the car in chart of gold, which means from here, he got 50% potential upside in the price of gold.

Speaker 1: (27:54)
In next five months. When he, when we think about the cost of options in relation to the size of the move, this could actually be the ultimate trade of the year. Now take it with a grain of salt because every time, you know, I get super excited about the trade. It does not end up being my best trade. And you should know that if you've traded with me in the past, you know, I'll give you like two or three trades for the day. And I'll say like, Hey, this is my favorite trade for the day. Well, the favorite trade for the day doesn't do nothing. Right. But then the other two trades that I thought weren't as good. Those are the trades make you 800%, 1600%, whatever. So based off everything I have looked into guys, this could be the best trade of the year.

Speaker 1: (28:40)
There's been a lot of gold bulls. Okay. Now they're saying, well, you know, the economy's going to the recession, but it wasn't the recession back in 1974 and then did not stop gold from rocketing high. But it been so many gold bulls out there, right? I mean, starting with Peter Schiff and bunch of other guys out there, whoa, gold, 7,000 gold, you know, 5,000. So on the question is, do we have the current market conditions? Okay. That could be not priced in by majority of the market participants. In other words, they've been bullish on gold for so damn long. Okay. They don't know the timing. They don't know the timing when gold is actually going to take off. So I think looking at this chart, it's gonna look like on the current chart, that gold is going to drop. So look at this, remember the conditions the blue line is doing, what it's going lower.

Speaker 1: (29:31)
The orange line is really not moving. It's just going a little bit higher. And normally we'd see an intersection and a D cross right here, the price drops. Okay. But in this particular case, considering everything that we study here at 13 market moves in the current historic analog that we're utilizing. I think it's gonna do this around here. I think gold could take off at any given moment. I'm not saying it's gonna take off Monday or at some point next week, but very likely in the next 10 to 14 days, gold could go on one of the biggest home runs in its history that we have not seen 18 back to the, you know, 1970s, 1980 stop situation. So be ready. This is not the trade that I'm suggesting you take right now. Uh, you could start biting into this trade little bite, um, understand that you're targeting the bigger move.

Speaker 1: (30:28)
So you could simply put a longer term option expiration instead of doing weekly or monthly. You can even go a few months out and just potentially, uh, you know, have an insane, insane train here now, knowing this, okay, you're gonna say, well, 50% higher from current levels is gonna be this level of 27, 45, please. Whatever you do do not make the stupid mistake that most of the people that watch this channel do again and again and again, which is buying the 2,700 strike in gold. That's bullshit. Okay. You would've taken any of our courses, guys, if you work with a coach, you know that that is the very elementary mistake that not even a five year old would dare to Meg who has studied 13 market moves curriculum. Okay. Your target price, which in this case is $2,745 should never coincide with your strike price.

Speaker 1: (31:28)
Okay. So basically what you're looking at doing is the price right now is 1,830 bucks. You want to get a strike? That's, you know, 1950, 2000. Okay. 2050. Okay. Something that is still priced, exceptionally lower in relation to this potential huge breakout. Okay. But your goal is to be in the money. So if the price indeed goes to 2,700, all of these strikes by the time of when we're expecting the trade to play out next hundred 20, uh, 280 days by that timeframe, okay. You would be way in the money on the straight. So your goal is not to buy the strike that coincides with your ultimate target price within the timeframe. Your goal is to buy a slightly out of the money strike, which will be in the money by the time the price accelerates to the upside that also protects you in case the historic analog is not 100%.

Speaker 1: (32:35)
Okay. Meaning could the price go to 2,400? Well, sure. But if you, if you buy the 2,700 strike, well, you're not gonna make the money mean this's ideal case comparison, right? To where it can go to 2,700. What if it goes to 25 50? Okay. But you bought the 2,700 strike. Well, overall the trade makes sense, but guess what? If you hold it till expiration, okay. Those options aren't gonna be worth anything, not the 27 45 strike. So please do not make that mistake. And if you're struggling with understanding this, even after I explain this guys, you've gotta get a coach to work with you. Who'll spend a little bit more time explaining you how the stuff works. Okay. But for the purpose of this video, do not be ever buying a strike price on your options that coincides with your target price. Simply put, if the stock right now is at $80 and you think it's going to a hundred, you do not on the no circumstances.

Speaker 1: (33:31)
Buy a 100 strike call. Okay? You wanna buy a 85 90. So by the time your target prices hit and the stock is trading at 100, you would actually be in the money on your call option. And the same applies to, to the put option. If you think something's gonna drop from 200 to 180, don't be buying a 180 strike price. Okay. You would only be buying 180 strike price. If your target was under 180. So if your target was 1 68 or 1 72, then it would make sense to buy the 180 strike put because by the time your, your target price would be hit, you would be in the money on your put. So if you need help, we'll understand these guys, make sure you click the link below, schedule a coaching call. But for those of you that are ready to rock and say, Hey, Leo, I am ready.

Speaker 1: (34:26)
I'm ready to take my 50 K account to million plus guys. Don't wait, start training with the coach. They study all the courses guys, before you do, it'll make the job of your coach a lot easier to help you get your accountability plus, okay. And it certainly would give you the confidence to stay with the trade. I mean, if you're trading with me, number one comment, I'm gonna send you is like, Hey, stay with the trade. I'm telling you that for a reason, because if you're gonna stay with the strategy 100% of the time, okay, you have a chance to beat the market. If you just gonna keep jumping in, jumping out, jumping in, jumping out, I promise you the market will beat you. Sometimes they'll beat you beyond the point of return. So don't allow the market to do that to you. Okay? Stay strong, stay 100% with the move, with the move sequence. Yes. There's gonna be losses at times, but overall your account will be green. If we take a sequence of six months, 12 months guys, and right now with the market so easily readable. Okay. Don't wait, take action. Today. Study the courses, sign up to trade with 13 market moves, coach and get ready to rock. I'll see you guys next video soon.


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